ABNT20 KNHC 131134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. (AL90):
An elongated area of low pressure offshore the coast of Florida is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Despite strong upper-level winds, some gradual development is
possible while the system moves northeastward offshore of the
southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of days. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across
portions of the Florida peninsula through late this week. For more
information, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center
and local National Weather Service Forecast Offices.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early
or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 141138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. (AL90):
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure area offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast has become a
little better organized since yesterday. However, upper-level
winds remain strong, and the system is forecast to merge with a
front over the western Atlantic Saturday or Sunday. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across portions
of the Florida peninsula through Saturday. For more information,
see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and local
National Weather Service Forecast Offices.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early
or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 171133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued for
portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those
warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf
coasts should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and
an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some development of this system during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United
States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 201145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of the
northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast
early on Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 211152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of showers and thunderstorms persists with a low
pressure system located around 150 miles east-southeast of
Jacksonville, Florida. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is currently
investigating the system to determine if the low has a well-defined
surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally
conducive for some additional development, and this system could
become a short-lived tropical depression as the low moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to reach
the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia by tonight, and
interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico later today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche
tonight, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward
or northwestward. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 221144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
A broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system as it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical depression could
form before the system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico
Sunday night. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could
cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and
Deep South Texas through the end of the weekend. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Near the Georgia Coast (AL92):
A low pressure system centered inland over southeastern Georgia is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the
coastal waters off of northeastern Florida and Georgia. The low
is expected to drift slowly northwestward or northward today before
dissipating tonight. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 261141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized shower activity while it moves quickly westward at
around 25 mph. Environmental conditions could become more conducive
for some gradual development in a couple of days over the western
Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves generally westward
across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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ABNT20 KNHC 291125
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally
conducive for further development. A tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland again early next week over
Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect
portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Beryl are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Beryl are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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ABNT20 KNHC 301120
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the southern portion
of the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning.
Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect
portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. An
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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ABNT20 KNHC 011147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, nearing the Windward Islands and Tropical Depression
Chris, located inland over eastern Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located over 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Chris are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Chris are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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