• TS Ernesto Brings Floods

    From Dumas Walker@1337:3/103 to All on Wed Aug 14 08:52:00 2024
    596
    WTNT35 KNHC 141152
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
    800 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

    ...FLOODING RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
    VIRGIN ISLANDS...

    SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...19.8N 67.2W
    ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the British Virgin Islands.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * British Virgin Islands
    * U.S. Virgin Islands
    * Puerto Rico
    * Vieques and Culebra

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

    For storm information specific to your area in the United
    States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
    monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
    forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
    outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
    your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
    located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 67.2 West. Ernesto is
    moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
    the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward
    speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
    center of Ernesto will move northward away from Puerto Rico through
    today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in
    the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.

    Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later today and
    could become a major hurricane in a couple of days.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
    991 mb (29.26 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
    and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

    RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
    4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
    totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
    expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
    inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
    Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin
    Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight
    hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch
    area during the next few hours.

    STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of
    onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the
    islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands,
    including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. For information
    specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
    National Weather Service forecast office.

    SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
    Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican
    Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and
    southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas
    on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the
    United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These
    swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
    conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg
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