• Francine now a Hurricane

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tue Sep 10 19:16:00 2024
    036
    WTNT31 KNHC 102345 CCA
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
    700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

    ...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
    ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
    TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...

    Corrected to add hurricane-force wind radius to the discussion
    and outlook section.

    SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
    ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
    ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * Sabine Pass Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
    * Vermilion Bay
    * Lake Maurepas
    * Lake Pontchartrain

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
    * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
    * Mobile Bay

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Texas and Louisiana coasts east of High Island to Cameron
    * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
    * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans

    A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
    inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
    during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
    Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
    from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
    locations during the next 48 hours.

    For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
    Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
    located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
    protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
    other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
    instructions from local officials.

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
    hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
    tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
    preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
    and property should be rushed to completion.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
    before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
    winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
    dangerous.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    For storm information specific to your area, including possible
    inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
    local National Weather Service forecast office.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
    located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 94.8 West. Francine is
    moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
    northeastward motion is expected tonight and Wednesday. On the
    forecast track, Francine is anticipated to make landfall in
    Louisiana Wednesday afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center
    is expected to move northward into the Mississippi Wednesday night
    and Thursday.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through
    Wednesday morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it
    moves inland.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) east of
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
    miles (220 km) from the center.

    The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and
    NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the
    Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
    header WTNT41 KNHC.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
    warning area Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
    arriving in the warning area Wednesday morning. Hurricane
    conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday
    afternoon and Wednesday night.

    Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
    the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Wednesday
    and Wednesday night.

    RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4
    to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern
    Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western
    Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
    to considerable flash and urban flooding.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
    Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
    graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

    STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
    tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
    rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
    reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
    areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

    Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
    Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
    Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
    Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft
    Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
    Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
    the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
    accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
    depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
    can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
    to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
    there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
    specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
    National Weather Service forecast office.

    For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
    inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
    Storm Surge Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

    TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday into Wednesday
    night across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
    southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

    SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of
    the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are likely
    to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
    consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen
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