• Heavy Rain/Flood KS/MO/IL

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tue Jul 16 07:31:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 161041
    FFGMPD
    ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161600-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0628
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    640 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast KS...North-Central MO...West-Central IL

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 161040Z - 161600Z

    SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of convection with high rainfall rates
    will be a problem through the mid to late morning hours from
    eastern Kansas to west-central Illinois. Training convection may
    lead to some instances of flooding through 11 am local time with
    rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour at times.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar and infrared satellite imagery depict
    two separate areas of concern. The first is a back-building MCS
    over west-central Illinois with a new line of nearly stationary
    convection centered near Route 36 in northern Missouri. The
    second is a slightly more progressive but very intense MCS
    crossing northeast Kansas, currently tracking along and just north
    of the Interstate 70 corridor.

    There is strong boundary layer moisture convergence just ahead of
    an incoming cold front, and lift is also being provided by a
    shortwave trough passing by to the north of this region. Model
    forecast soundings indicate ample instability feeding into both of
    these complexes from the south, with convection likely to increase
    in coverage over the next few hours. Additionally, the latest CAM
    guidance has been struggling to accurately depict the overall
    evolution of this convection, but the latest ARW seems to have the
    best overall depiction based on what is currently happening on
    radar. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible with the
    strongest and most persistent convection.

    Hamrick

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

    ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 40079472 40079346 39919127 39648978 39028917
    38118982 38279124 38489255 38559523 38399653
    38599724 38849757 39239761 39789701

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