ACUS11 KWNS 111729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111728=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-111900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Louisiana into
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 111728Z - 111900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least a few tornadoes is increasing
across portions of southern LA into far southern MS. A Tornado Watch
issuance will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown a gradual increase
in the intensity of convective cells embedded within the broader
rainbands associated with Hurricane Francine, which are attempting
to move ashore. Surface temperatures/dewpoints in southeastern LA
are in the upper 70s/mid 70s F, which are contributing to 500+ J/kg
MLCAPE. At the same time, low-level shear continues to increase
along the Gulf Coast, with the HDC VAD profiler showing increasingly
curved hodographs, with nearly 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH noted. Low-level
shear should continue to increase through the afternoon, with a
subsequent increase in tornado potential likely as well. Given the
increasing severe risk, a Tornado Watch issuance will be needed
soon.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/11/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-a5kYK-ZD7VcJTe0vNqGuiteccH3tarOFaQgrDsT_8DtlTAIHL2L34_8c0YiX-2x4whi-qK6O= I9Qwwy98Ny9nA0-kmg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29539220 30089172 30559106 30769022 30888930 30908867
30808839 30598827 30238832 29968878 29288907 29048912
29008966 29019042 29099128 29539220=20


=3D =3D =3D
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