ACUS11 KWNS 282353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282352=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-290145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Areas affected...parts of north central South Dakota and south
central North Dakota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 661...

Valid 282352Z - 290145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 661 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercell development likely will persist near the Dakotas
state border vicinity between Jamestown ND and Mobridge SD through
8-9 PM CDT. These storms will pose a continuing risk for large hail
in excess of 2 inches in diameter, with at least some further
increase in tornadic potential possible.

DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorm initiation has been focused along
surface troughing across the central Dakotas, most notably near and
just north of the state border vicinity. This is near the nose of
stronger surface heating characterized by temperatures approaching
90 F, in the presence of lower/mid 70s F dew points. Coupled with
forcing for ascent, this has been sufficient to overcome mid-level
inhibition associated with warm and capping elevated mixed-layer
air.

At least some attempt at upscale growth is underway north of the
sustained supercell development to the southwest of Fort Yates,
across and north of the Bismarck vicinity. However, the mid-level
cold core of the slow moving upstream low, progressing eastward
along the central Montana international border area, will remain
displaced well to the west of the weak southeastward advancing cold
front. Strongest low-level forcing, in the form of
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, appears likely to remain
focused near the North and South Dakota state border area, between
Jamestown ND and Mobridge SD, aided by an intensifying southerly
low-level jet (to 50+ kt around 850 mb) through 01-02Z.

This probably will maintain evolving supercell structures, perhaps
within a small upscale growing cluster. Aided by southeasterly
inflow of air characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000-4000 J/kg, in
the presence of moderate southwesterly deep-layer shear, activity
will continue to pose a risk for large hail. As clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs slowly enlarge, the potential for tornadoes may
still increase a bit further early this evening.

..Kerr.. 08/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8OdYLh6yIsfinW_MaW0ZiHDqFMHuRxdap8zE_csZCxOTwd2LGpys5tK0ElC06oR97gHt45HsY= kf8Jxgsy5TZVduLSjw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45870028 46719973 46469867 45609907 45609975 45640042
45870028=20


=3D =3D =3D
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